An extended and improved theory is presented for marked and weighted empirical processes of residuals of time series regressions. The theory is motivated by 1-step Huber-skip estimators, where a set of good observations are selected using an initial estimator and an updated estimator is found by applying least squares to the selected observations.
In this case, the weights and marks represent powers of the regressors and the regression errors, respectively.
The inclusion of marks is a non-trivial extention to previous theory and requires refined martingale arguments. Authors: Stephen Broadberry , Leigh Gardner. Estimates of GDP per capita are provided on an annual basis for eight Sub-Saharan African economies for the period since Despite some heterogeneity across countries, this must be seen as a disappointing performance for the region as a whole, given the possibilities of catch-up growth. Avoiding episodes of shrinking needs to be given a higher priority in understanding the transition to sustained economic growth.
Authors: Anouk Rigterink. This paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders, and thereby undermines control within terrorist organizations, affects terrorist attacks.
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Additional analysis of heterogenous effects across groups, and the impact of drone hits on the timing, type and target of attacks, attacks by affiliated terrorist groups, infighting and group splintering, indicates that aggravated problems of control principal-agent and collective action problems explain these results better than alternative theoretical mechanisms.
Authors: David Ronayne , Greg Taylor. A bigger CC means more consumers compare prices, increasing within-channel competition.
However, such seemingly procompetitive developments can raise prices and reduce consumer surplus by weakening between-channel competition. Authors: Guido Ascari , Timo Haber. This paper proposes a minimal test of two basic empirical predictions that ag-gregate data should exhibit if sticky prices were the key transmission mechanism of monetary policy, as implied by the benchmark DSGE-New Keynesian models. First, large monetary policy shocks should yield proportionally larger initial re-sponses of the price level and smaller real effects on output.
Second, in a high trend inflation regime, prices should be more flexible, and thus the real effects of monetary policy shocks should be smaller and the response of the price level larger. Our analysis provides some statistically significant evidence in favor of a sticky price theory of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy shocks. Keywords: Sticky prices, local projections, smooth transition function, time-dependent pricing, state-dependent pricing.
Social intervention by governments in liberal democracies faces two major problems. The first is that it tends to reward the majority at the expense of the weak; there is no agreed way to trade-off the claims of different groups on a limited pool of resources, so it comes down to political muscle. The second is that support for intervention depends on a continuing flow of new resources, to fix each new problem while still preserving the interests of existing clients — and as a result, subsidies and controls multiply, despite the fact that they often pursue conflicting goals.
In the early days of the British welfare state these dilemmas were resolved by shared assumptions that were fundamentally illiberal, excluding some groups altogether and enabling a clear pecking order amongst the rest. By the end of the century these narratives had largely been rejected.
What happened was not a collapse in the fact of collective provision which continued to grow but a collapse in the narrative by which it was understood. Unable to resist popular pressure to spend more, governments were also unable to build the public confidence necessary to persuade taxpayers to pay for what they wanted. The easiest course of action was to give in to vested interests; to fund as much as possible by borrowing, on and off the balance sheet; and once the money started to run out, to give in to the most powerful groups, and to pay proportionately less attention to the less vocal.
Does industrial development change gender roles? This is the first paper to causally explore the effects of a continent-wide expansion of a modern industry on gender roles, captured by attitudes and behaviors. Identification relies on plausibly exogenous spatial-temporal variation in gold mining in Africa. Findings are robust to assumptions about trends, distance, and migration and show that gender roles can change rapidly with economic development. Therefore long-term abatement plans should influence current investment.
Moreover, newer technologies exhibit learning-by-doing in the deployment of associated infrastructure. We investigate these ideas from both theoretical and numerical perspectives. We exploit the time variation of the booming natural resource sector activity in an oil-producing area with the location of manufacturing plants. We hypothesize that the effect of the booming sector on plants depends on their spatial proximity, which allows us to create an exogenous treatment variable.
The outcome variables include plant-level wages, employment, sales, and exports. We find that the effect of the booming sector on the incidence of exporting varies greatly by plant-level productivity. More productive plants become more likely to export relative to less productive plants. They can do so by paying a higher wage, while employment grows less than plants that serve only the domestic market.
In particular, while there is a great variety in the effect by sector, a clear linkage with the resource industry is not observed. A recurring theme is that CES preferences are extremely convenient for deriving analytic results, but also extremely restrictive in their theoret-ical and empirical implications. Are they the optimal response to geography and comparative advantage, or the result of suboptimal political distortions? We investigate the political determinants of road paving in West Africa across the period.
Early booking is advised and rewarded! There is an increasing need for a wide range of professionals in the health care field to have a firm understanding of economic evaluation methods. This two-day course addresses any advanced needs to be addressed in such contexts. As this course focusses on the technical methods of conducting modelling for economic evaluation modelling, it will be relevant to both UK and non-UK participants. It is expected participants have taken either the introductory three day course offered by HERG or have similar previous training and expertise.
The course covers material of an intermediate and advanced level and provides the foundation for participants to be able to critique models presented to them and to become increasingly involved in the development of new models. Potential participants who have previous training in this area, but are unclear if it is sufficient for this course, are advised to contact HERG prior to registering, to discuss the appropriateness of the course content to their ongoing needs. Prof Doug Coyle. Mr Matthew Glover. Dr Kyriaki Giorgakoudi.
Prices and quantities have been described as the most directly observable attributes of goods produced and exchanged in a market economy. In microeconomics , it applies to price and output determination for a market with perfect competition , which includes the condition of no buyers or sellers large enough to have price-setting power. For a given market of a commodity , demand is the relation of the quantity that all buyers would be prepared to purchase at each unit price of the good.
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Demand is often represented by a table or a graph showing price and quantity demanded as in the figure. Demand theory describes individual consumers as rationally choosing the most preferred quantity of each good, given income, prices, tastes, etc. A term for this is "constrained utility maximization" with income and wealth as the constraints on demand. Here, utility refers to the hypothesized relation of each individual consumer for ranking different commodity bundles as more or less preferred.
The law of demand states that, in general, price and quantity demanded in a given market are inversely related. That is, the higher the price of a product, the less of it people would be prepared to buy other things unchanged. As the price of a commodity falls, consumers move toward it from relatively more expensive goods the substitution effect.
In addition, purchasing power from the price decline increases ability to buy the income effect. Other factors can change demand; for example an increase in income will shift the demand curve for a normal good outward relative to the origin, as in the figure. All determinants are predominantly taken as constant factors of demand and supply. Supply is the relation between the price of a good and the quantity available for sale at that price. It may be represented as a table or graph relating price and quantity supplied.
Producers, for example business firms, are hypothesized to be profit maximizers , meaning that they attempt to produce and supply the amount of goods that will bring them the highest profit. Supply is typically represented as a function relating price and quantity, if other factors are unchanged. That is, the higher the price at which the good can be sold, the more of it producers will supply, as in the figure.
The higher price makes it profitable to increase production. Just as on the demand side, the position of the supply can shift, say from a change in the price of a productive input or a technical improvement. The "Law of Supply" states that, in general, a rise in price leads to an expansion in supply and a fall in price leads to a contraction in supply. Here as well, the determinants of supply, such as price of substitutes, cost of production, technology applied and various factors inputs of production are all taken to be constant for a specific time period of evaluation of supply.
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Market equilibrium occurs where quantity supplied equals quantity demanded, the intersection of the supply and demand curves in the figure above. At a price below equilibrium, there is a shortage of quantity supplied compared to quantity demanded. This is posited to bid the price up. At a price above equilibrium, there is a surplus of quantity supplied compared to quantity demanded. This pushes the price down. The model of supply and demand predicts that for given supply and demand curves, price and quantity will stabilize at the price that makes quantity supplied equal to quantity demanded.
Similarly, demand-and-supply theory predicts a new price-quantity combination from a shift in demand as to the figure , or in supply. For a given quantity of a consumer good, the point on the demand curve indicates the value, or marginal utility , to consumers for that unit. It measures what the consumer would be prepared to pay for that unit. The price in equilibrium is determined by supply and demand. In a perfectly competitive market , supply and demand equate marginal cost and marginal utility at equilibrium.
On the supply side of the market, some factors of production are described as relatively variable in the short run , which affects the cost of changing output levels. Their usage rates can be changed easily, such as electrical power, raw-material inputs, and over-time and temp work.
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Other inputs are relatively fixed , such as plant and equipment and key personnel. In the long run , all inputs may be adjusted by management. These distinctions translate to differences in the elasticity responsiveness of the supply curve in the short and long runs and corresponding differences in the price-quantity change from a shift on the supply or demand side of the market. Marginalist theory , such as above, describes the consumers as attempting to reach most-preferred positions, subject to income and wealth constraints while producers attempt to maximize profits subject to their own constraints, including demand for goods produced, technology, and the price of inputs.
For the consumer, that point comes where marginal utility of a good, net of price, reaches zero, leaving no net gain from further consumption increases. Analogously, the producer compares marginal revenue identical to price for the perfect competitor against the marginal cost of a good, with marginal profit the difference.
At the point where marginal profit reaches zero, further increases in production of the good stop. For movement to market equilibrium and for changes in equilibrium, price and quantity also change "at the margin": more-or-less of something, rather than necessarily all-or-nothing.